Page 171 - Cyber Terrorism and Extremism as Threat to Critical Infrastructure Protection

7 If the Face Fits: Is it Possible for Artificial

Intelligence to Accurately Predict Threats

to Protect Critical Infrastructure?

Graeme Ballard

1 Introduction

In 2002, Tom Cruise starred in a film called Minority Report. The film’s central theme was
1
that crime could be predicted by a group of “precogs ” and then stopped by law enforcement
officers before it occurred. The ethics of both prosecuting and punishing criminals before they
had committed a crime was also explored.

While individuals with psychic abilities predicting criminal activity is still very much in
the realms of science fiction, this paper examines the question “Can artificial intelligence
accurately predict threats to protect critical infrastructure”? The short answer is “yes” – my
consortium has been working on this specific project for the last 18 months.

The method by which a machine can be programmed to achieve the identification of threats is
far beyond the scope of this article. So, too, is the academic work, from both psychology and
sociology, that is required to underpin such a programming. Instead, this paper discusses some
of the principles of what is required to achieve a revolutionary, Minority Report-style tool, and
the changes in attitude and business models that are required to achieve it. First, there will be
a discussion of artificial intelligence and the need to integrate it into security. Second, we will
look at how threats are currently predicted using biological cues and statistical analysis. Next
follows a discussion on how to improve what we currently do – how to integrate cognitive and
conative psychological theory as part of programming an AI, in order to accurately predict
threats. The concluding section will consider how business models and our attitudes towards
security must change in order for any AI to be successfully implemented in the energy sector.

1 A fictional term for precognition, where an individual possesses the ability to see the future.

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